US 2024 Jobs Report Indicate Fewer New Jobs As Predicted
The latest revision of the U.S. jobs report has revealed a significant discrepancy in the previously reported job growth figures. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added 818,000 fewer jobs than initially estimated for the year ending in March 202412. This adjustment has sparked discussions among economists and policymakers about the implications for the labor market and also the broader economy.
The Revised Job Growth Figures
The preliminary revision indicates that job growth averaged 174,000 per month, a notable decrease from the initially reported 242,000 jobs per month12. This revision is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which provides a more accurate reflection of employment and wages also reported by employers covering over 95% of U.S. jobs3.
Reasons for the Revision
The significant downward revision is attributed to several factors. One key reason is the exclusion of unauthorized immigrants from the QCEW data, as they typically do not qualify for unemployment benefits3. This exclusion could mean that the actual job growth figures might be higher. Also considering the contributions of unauthorized immigrants to the labor market3.
Impact on Different Sectors
The revision has affected various sectors differently. The professional services and hospitality industries saw the largest downward adjustments, with estimated payrolls lowered by 358,000 and aso 150,000, respectively4. In contrast, the transportation and warehousing industries are expected to see upward revisions3.
Implications for the Federal Reserve
The revised job growth figures have significant implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The cooler labor market could prompt the Fed to consider cutting interest rates sooner than anticipated3. Economists suggest that the Fed might prepare markets for a rate cut at its September meeting. Also given the evidence of a slowing labor market3.
The revised U.S. jobs report highlights the complexities of accurately measuring job growth. And the importance of considering various factors that can influence these figures.
